New Report Shows Minnesota’s Electric Grid at High Risk of Future Power Shortages

A recent assessment by the organization responsible for monitoring the reliability of North America’s electric grid warns of potential electricity shortfalls in Minnesota’s region in the years ahead.

The Minnesota Rural Electric Association (MREA) is highlighting the latest Long-Term Reliability Assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), which finds the Midcontinent Independent System Operator region, including Minnesota, faces elevated reliability risks as electricity demand grows and existing power plants retire.

“We need to take these warnings seriously,” said Darrick Moe, president and CEO of the Minnesota Rural Electric Association. “Reliability is not optional in a state like Minnesota. When temperatures drop well below zero or soar during a heat wave, families, farms and businesses depend on electricity being there when they need it.”

NERC regularly evaluates electricity supply and demand across North America. Its latest assessment, which looks ahead through the mid-2030s, shows MISO remains one of the regions with the greatest long-term reliability challenges, particularly during periods of extreme weather.

According to the report, expected growth in electricity demand is outpacing the addition of new generation resources. At the same time, dispatchable power plants that provide consistent, around-the-clock electricity continue to retire. NERC notes this combination increases the risk of resource shortfalls, especially during prolonged heat waves or extreme cold events.

While summer peak demand remains a concern, the assessment also highlights increasing winter reliability risks across much of the country, including the Upper Midwest. Cold weather events place significant strain on the grid as heating demand rises and energy resources are tested simultaneously.

MREA continues to advocate for what it calls an “all-tech-on-deck” approach to maintaining reliability, recognizing that a diverse mix of resources is needed to meet future demand while keeping electricity affordable.

“Long-term reliability requires long-term planning,” Moe said. “That includes taking a fresh look at policies, like Minnesota’s nuclear moratorium, that limit our ability to consider proven resources that operate in all weather conditions. Today’s energy policy decisions will affect reliability in the decades ahead.”

The NERC assessment is a regional analysis and does not suggest that individual utilities are unable to meet their obligations today. However, it does underscore the importance of long-term planning, impacts from policy decisions, permitting certainty and timely investment in generation and transmission infrastructure.